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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."