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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.